Pollster who predicted Trump’s win explains why polls may still be wrong

63 comments

The New York Times published a new analysis story by Nate Cohn explaining why some polling before the 2022 midterm elections may be incorrect. Pollster Robert Cahaly, of the Trafalgar Group, who correctly predicted Trump's win in 2016 discusses the issues with polling. #cnn #News

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63 comments

  1. I think the polling would have been correct if Comey had not incorrectly tanked Hillary at the last minute btw…..she won by 3 million popular votes

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    1. @Melting Pot I don’t give a bunk what you think of me. You got your opinion and I got mine. And if we were face to face there wouldn’t be no talking. I’d be doing something else to you homeboy.

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    2. Because Smerconish loves to dig. He still thinks the GOP can be what it was during Eisenhower, and hasn’t been able to fully accept the reality of what’s become of his party.

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  6. It’s never good to just rely on polls anyway. We have to get out and vote, but this guy also said Trump was going to win in 2020 and that he’s win AZ and MI and none of that happened. Just get out and vote!

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  7. The reason why everyone, including me, thought that Trump would lose in 2016 was Obama 2008. Back then, roughly one quarter of those DEM voters who had voted for Hillary in the primaries later said that they did not vote for Obama in the presidential election. And that had been very civil primaries. Fast forward to 2016 when Trump offended and insulted everyone who voted for Cruz or Rubio or JEB! or Kasich or Paul in the GOP primaries. We all expected that some of them would be unwilling to vote for Trump in the presidential elections.

    And then they all did.
    Because – there – is – no – cult – of – personality.
    These people will vote GOP no matter who the candidate is.
    The 2024 candidate will get 75 million vote, no matter who it is.

    Our only hope is that the 81 million Biden voters will do their duty again.
    _

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    3. @Wesley Hitchcock For the first time in my 68 years of life, the young people are paying attention to politics..It is plain to see, they will be voting on the rights of the American people..and the sufferage of the people…Especially in the States with violence in their schools…and suppression of knowledge..More people today of all ages know who most States elected officials are..That has never happened in USA before…Knowledge is the awakening….

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    4. @Drought Tolerant You can’t count any better than DJT..There was a very few thousand…The Ohio State Game had more…Stadium Capacity 104,944, and was full to capacity..DJT Rally had 6,000…My small town BBQ, had more than that…

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  8. That guy was wrong in 2018 and 2020 big picture, wasnt he? 🤔
    That they got 2 right in Florida (wow!) doesnt make up for the wrong calls all over the rest in two election cycles.

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  9. After 2020 especially we all should have some skepticism about polling. But of course there’s a HUGE difference in these upcoming mid-terms that no other election had. And that, of course, is the overturning of Roe v Wade.

    And that’s what gives me cautious optimism the Dems will win in Nov., overall, because that’s guaranteed to bring progressive voters, including new ones, to the polls. If there are enough of them, then these “submerged” GOP voters (which I think is probably a real thing) that Cahaly refers to may not matter.

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  10. Folks do not listen to pollsters or read their polling results. Polls are just a snapshot of opinions from a select few at any given time throughout an election cycle. Trust yourselves. Listen to what is in your heart regarding the state of our nation today and the possible fate of our nation after the election and vote accordingly. This election is much too important for future of our nation. We all know what needs to be done. Let’s get it done. Vote.

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  11. I can make the same prediction as this guy. ” Some time the polls are right some times the polls are wrong” By just pointing out when he is right but not when he was wrong.

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  12. You’re talking about Trafalgar as if they don’t make crucial mistakes – they do, and these are usually in favor of the Republicans:
    1. In the 2020 runoff for one of Georgia’s Senate seats, they predicted the Republican Loeffler would win by 1.3%. She lost by 2.1%.
    2. In the 2020 Presidential election they predicted Trump would win Georgia by 4.3%. He lost it by 0.2%.
    3. In the 2020 Presidential election, they predicted Trump would win Nevada by 0.7%. He lost it by 2.4%.
    4. In the 2020 Presidential election, they predicted Trump would win Pennsylvania by 1.9%. He lost it by 1.2%.
    5. In the 2020 Presidential election, they predicted Trump would win Michigan by 2.5%. He lost it by 2.8%.
    6. In the 2020 Presidential election, they predicted Trump would win Arizona by 2.5%. He lost it by 0.3%.
    7. In the 2020 Senate election in Michigan, they predicted the Republican candidate (James) would win by 2.2%. He lost by 1.7%.

    Now, it’s not like he doesn’t have a point – I think that he does. But I also think his polls tend to overestimate Republican support.

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    1. Absolutely, and there’s an overstatement of how much polling was off by in aggregate, albeit certainly there were big discrepancies. There’s an assumption asserted that there was a single explanatory or causal factor, and that’s not necessarily the case.

      Different states played out differently, and it would be illuminating to hear a different perspective, perhaps from a firm that in the view this segment has not changed its methodology sufficiently, as to a) whether that is true, b) why they haven’t changed it indeed they have not, c) what they think caused such discrepancies as existed.

      All polling companies use different methodologies, and that’s one reason they all give different actual numbers, and why we tend to use averages.

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  13. Trafalgar Group said that Trump would win the 2020 election, estimating that he would win Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania. Joe Biden won the election with 306 electoral votes and succeeded in winning Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, and Pennsylvania. They got the overall result and 5 of 7 battleground states wrong. The two they got right, Florida and North Carolina, are Republican leaning to begin with. That’s not a very good record, IMO. But give them credit for predicting the Trump win in 2016.

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  14. We have to hope that the quite majority that are not telling others how they feel are smart enough to vote for democracy

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  15. Not to say this pollster is wrong this time, but they glossed over the fact that late in 2020 he had Trump winning Arizona, Michigan and Florida. He got Florida correct, but Arizona and Michigan wrong. But he may have been within the margin of error, I didn’t check that.
    Just VOTE. Make sure you are properly registered.

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  17. I remember when in 2020 I saw someone touting a pollster which predicted Trump’s landslide victory with ALL states showing red. That was wild

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  19. This guy has been wrong multiple times. 😂 Also, he completely ignores Roe vs Wade and the HUGE increase in women voter registration… early indicator of Women Wave of Votes… guess what for Huckleberry Finn? 🤣

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