Putin’s ex-adviser says one move could end his war in a month

Vladimir Putin's former chief economic adviser Andrei Illarionov argues that a full embargo of Russian oil could end the war within a month or two. Illaronov discusses this idea with CNN's Brianna Keilar on New Day. #CNN #News

72 comments

    1. You may say I’m a dreamer
      But I’m not the only one
      One day there’ll be no oil
      And the world will live as one

  1. From a Dutch person. Stop stalling with this sanction. We all know this is what is needed. Just setup this sanction with a condition: it will be immediately dropped once Russia withdraws all their troops from Ukraine. We can keep the other sanctions around until Russia has compensated Ukraine for the damage done. But for now, we need just to stop the senseless violence. Some temporary pains can be lived through by the rich Western world.

  2. Setting embargos while still purchasing Russian oil that helps to subsidize the war in Ukraine is fairly senseless! European nations that (unfortunately) rely heavily on Russia oil need to STOP buying this import from the motherland of the former USSR. Is it possible for them to purchase from OPEC nations, Canada, or even perhaps from the US?

    1. All the Americans here who have commented on all the “easy solutions” Europe could/should adopt should take a moment to THINK. Easy to find simple solutions when you are a practically self-sufficient country energy-wise, and have a whole ocean between your country and Europe/Russia. Of course we Europeans are looking at alternative solutions, but nothing can be done in a few days’ time as some seem to think.
      For one thing, not every European country knows the same situation: France is still very much fueled by nuclear power, while Germany has been shutting down their nuclear plants and is heavily dependant on Russian gas. Belgium does not use much Russian gas, but imports like 40% of its oil from Russia. Poland is still largely on coal and Russian oil, etc.
      The energy prices, electricity, gas or oil, were already trending sky-high in Europe before the war in Ukraine, because of the economic boost following the pandemic. The war has still aggravated this situation. Americans should not voice an opinion here, because you have always had plenty cheap energies. What you pay for a gallon of gas, we pay for a liter. Besides, don’t tell us to use public transportation more, or do carpooling and take a bike to the office: we already do it.
      The problem is (1) that people need energies to warm their houses and (2) that the larger energy users are the industries trying to reach back to pre-pandemic activities. In short, it is a much more intricate situation than you Americans will ever be able to fathom, used as you are to waste and overuse your resources when Europe has been working to restrict the use of fuel for years. For instance, a large effort is made to insulate our houses, and you might take a few lessons from us here, with your houses built of light wood, cardboard and roofing, which warm mostly the clouds over your roofs.
      Infrastructures need to be adapted, and this is easier said than done. Do you realize how many LPG-carrier ships are needed to replace ONE pipeline? Plus if a plant uses oil for his industrial activities, it cannot convert to LPG overnight: do you get that?
      In Europe, we are all convinced that the present situation will force us to accelerate our ecological transition, which may be a blessing in disguise, but this transition, as far as the general public is concerned, has already been going on for years. On this side of the Atlantic, you will find no climate change deniers, and no one pretending that wind turbines give cancer and that solar panels send laser beams into space, thank you.

  3. Ukraine is an independent country. Ukrainians have the right to defend themselves and obtain missiles from any sources they want.

    1. Yes , and they also have the right poke Russia in its eye. Unfortunately, they have no right to say there should not be any consequences; not that it matters even if it had.

  4. Outstanding journalism, thank you CNN and to Mr. Anrei Illarionov for his advanced remedy that could put him in harms way when he visits Russia.

    1. Actually his advice isn’t that useful, a weaken European union because of lack of oil sounds like a sitting duck ready for attack

    2. @Phil Morton I understand the volume of transaction is quite high for many EU nation like Germany and will not be able to find alternative source which also would drive up the energy prices and decimate the economy and living; but to also know that just 2 or 1 month of total embargo could starve Putin of capital is worthy knowledge.

  5. I had no idea how much of Russia’s economy was propped up by fuel exports. So the massive increase in Russian GDP per capita (bringing them closer to advanced Western countries) during Putin’s tenure hasn’t been due to development of industry, technology, etc. like it appears at first blush. Start this embargo NOW!

    1. Russia GDP 1.483trillion
      Population 1.440 trillion.

      U.S. GDP 20.9 trillion.
      Population, 325.4
      million

    2. @Andygb78 Well they are empowering Putin. They put themselves in this position. Germans are just looking at their pain. What about Ukranine’s pain. It’s far worse than a bad economy or high gas prices. Germany on the wrong side of “never again” again.

  6. The Russian Ministry of Defense says that one shell simply detonated and a fire started.
    Military experts political scientists in Russia say they will take revenge on Ukraine for the attack on the ship.
    They just once again forgot that you need to lie the same way.πŸ˜„πŸ˜„

    1. Well, maybe they meant that all of Russia would take revenge on that one guy who was smoking near the magazine?

    2. Detonated because a missile struck them. lol. It’s like saying that guy over there died because he bled out and leaving out the fact that he bled out because he was shot.

    3. They announced a cigarette caused the fire. I expect them to sent cruise missiles to flatten the papyrossa factory in Russia.

  7. The sticky part would be to enforce the embargo. I imagine Koch Industries has lawyers working around the clock even now trying to find loopholes for this possibility.

    1. They don’t need or want Russia, what they want is Germany & the EU. They need LNG & we want to get it to them. The logistics are a bit tricky however.

  8. The World simply Loved this extremely important point of view and agrees completely.
    Glory to Ukrainian πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡¦πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡¦πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡¦πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡¦

  9. We cannot expect for Russia to lose this war if we(EU)at the same time keep sending $1billion a day to the Russian gas and oil revenue.

    1. 100% ….it’s the fastest solution to this war, this is like everyone knowing the winning lottery ticket numbers …and the people in charge not bothering to post the lottery ticket in time! Everyone is screaming…JUST DO IT NOW!

  10. The problem is that countries have more interest in their own business than the horrific things going on in Ukraine.

    1. @whirlwind: it touches me that you think and pray for Ukraine, when your own country is under Chinese donimance. I live in California and have prayed now for several years that something happens so China is split in several countries and Tibet regains its independence. πŸ™ πŸ•‰πŸ•‰πŸ•‰πŸ•‰

  11. Enforce the embargo he proposes AND give Ukraine all the heavy weapons it needs. It’ll take no more than 3 months until a social revolt in Russia will bring the government down.

  12. The Ukrainian authorities say that the Russians do not want to collect the bodies of their soldiers. – I guess that’s how cattle are treated, not soldiers. If this is true, then the level of animosity in these people is unimaginable

    As a commander, I ask myself: what must have happened to the military elite of the Russian army that they would agree to abandon the bodies of fallen soldiers on the battlefield and fail to provide the proper burial they deserve, fighting the hell knows what. Probably to satisfy the sick ambitions of Russian commanders. I am looking diligently in history when something similar happened and I cannot find such a case

    The former commander of the land forces calls it bestiality to hide from families that their relatives died at the front. He reminds that during World War II, the Russians sent their soldiers to fight without documents so that they could not be identified.

    “The family will never know what happened to their son.” Putin is carrying out a crime on his own people. It is unworthy of the 21st century and the army that was called the second army of the world – assessed General Skrzypczak.

    1. They were always like that, you just didn’t know that. They behave EXACT same way on every war in they history. Welcome to reality.

  13. very interesting interview. He knows just what would cripple putin’s war. BTW, kudos to the brave ukrainian fighters for a successful strike on the ship!

  14. Agreed. And it should be done as soon as possible to prevent Russia from restructuring its financing with the help of China, India or others.

  15. Putin thought and so far correctly, that Russia’s finances would remain solid so long as Europe keeps buying gas and oil. He knows how critical these resources are to Europe and that no matter what he does, they will never be cut off. He has no reason to end the war so long as the cash cow continues to function.

  16. Finally western media started interviewing him. As a Russian I feel like 90% of my knowledge about modern Russian politics comes from him.

  17. I agree. But the problem is the free market which deals in the future. It’s not that the EU cannot embargo and hold out for a few months, it’s that the prices at the pump would skyrocket to levels which we have seen in Florida with the power outages. So the state must govern the market – but there are no laws in place. The states could declare a state of war,…..

  18. Interesting interview. On another matter, as a second language learner, it never ceases to amaze me how well many Europeans speak multiple languages. Once you learn another language, it opens your mind and heart to another world.

  19. The EU should split the embargo costs fairly between all member states. If Germany would take a huge blow, the other states should bear some of the load, financially. I live in one of the poorest EU countries but I would gladly suffer financially for one year or so just to see this war end in a month. There has to be a solution, and there probably is but only if we realize that we have to pay for it, but the price we pay is nothing compared to the many lives lost in Ukraine.

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